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Abstract
Early modelling processes in elementary classrooms are difficult to observe systematically. This exploratory case study examined two Fermi-problem lessons involving 32 grade 3 students in Japan and operationalized early-stage modelling through four indicators: early assumption articulation, estimation-validation transitions, time allocated to estimation and checking, and validation-oriented discourse. Intra-coder stability for the underlying one-minute modelling activity diagram categories was examined through blind recoding of 43 of 123 units (35.0%; Cohen’s κ = .81). Across the analyzed groups, early assumptions occurred in 25.0-50.0%, at least one estimation-validation transition in 66.7-75.0%, and validation-oriented discourse in 50.0-100.0%; estimation-plus-checking ratios were 40.9% and 36.6% across the two tasks. The findings suggest that selected cyclic modelling dynamics may become interactionally visible in grade 3 classrooms. The proposed indicators constitute an exploratory analytical approach whose reliability and transferability require further validation.
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Article Type: Research Article
EURASIA J Math Sci Tech Ed, Volume 22, Issue 9, September 2026, Article No: em2902
https://doi.org/10.29333/ejmste/19138
Publication date: 13 Aug 2026
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